// Pearson r between entry midprice and win rate
r = 0.991
Pay 30¢, win 30% of the time. Pay 90¢, win 90% of the time. The market is pricing fairly across all 10 bands.
His alpha is not picking mispriced odds. It is timing the entry inside the few-second window before the orderbook catches up to spot.
Observed WR vs entry midprice · diagonal = perfect calibration