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Polymarket / On-chain

Sharky6999

On-chain analysis of Polymarket trader Sharky6999. Active over 31 days with 90,086 trades across 2,223 markets, netting +$59,615 at +0.3% ROI.

Published May 05, 2026 ~9 min read By PR&R Research View on Polymarket →

Volume traded

$21.26M

31-day window

Realized return

+0.3%

Cash-flow accounting

Top category share

34%

Crypto of total volume

Both-sides rate

1.0%

Single-sided book

// 001 / Analysis

The portfolio shape, and where the edge appears to come from.

Wallet activity across 31 days, every fill mapped, profile traced.

This wallet ran for 31 active days (31 calendar days in window) and logged 90,086 trades - 80,781 BUY tickets and 9,305 SELL tickets - across 2,223 distinct markets and 2,002 events. Gross turnover for the window: $21.26M, averaging 2,906 trades/day.

On the resolved-BUY book, the wallet has 55,783 closed positions with a 98.9% win rate (55,143 wins / 640 losses), netting +$59,615 on $20.74M deployed - a realized return of +0.29%.

One-sided book, crypto-focused: 1.0% both-sides participation, top vertical Crypto at 34.3% of capital.

Sizing & execution profile

The median fill is $0.74, the mean is $235.98, P95 is $375.56, P99 is $3,302.64 and the largest single fill in the window was $431,970.83. The top 5% of trades carry 94.0% of total capital - a sizing curve where most fills are small probes and a small handful of larger fills express conviction.

Intra-market consecutive fill gap is 0s median with 89.4% of pairs firing in under ten seconds - a latency signature consistent with automated execution.

Where the edge lives

Only 1.0% of markets have both sides bought, well below any market-making threshold. Edge attribution lives in the entry-price bucket and category selection rather than spread capture. See the quantitative section for the price-band breakdown.

Of 31 rolling 15-day windows, 31 close positive (100.0% green-window rate). This is the consistency profile that determines how reproducible the strategy is over time.

// 002 / Figure

Daily realized P/L over the window.

Each bar is a single calendar day. Blue bars are profitable days, grey are losing days.

// 003 / Quantitative breakdown

Quantitative breakdown

Phase-by-phase statistical report. Methodology, distributions, per-bucket P/L.

Wallet: 0x751a2b86cab503496efd325c8344e10159349ea1 Window: 2026-04-01 → 2026-05-01 (31 active / 31 calendar days) Methodology: Cash-flow P/L = -buy_usdc + sell_usdc + remaining_share_payout. Resolved shares settle at $1 (win) / $0 (loss); open positions marked at last price.

Phase 1 - Trader Profile

Scale

Metric	Value
Total trades	90,086
BUY trades	80,781
SELL trades	9,305 (10.3% of all)
Unique markets	2,223
Unique events	2,002
Active calendar days	31 of 31
Trades per active day	2,906
BUY notional	$20,870,077
SELL notional	$388,744
Gross turnover	$21,258,821

Trade-size distribution (USDC per fill)

Metric	Value
median	$0.74
mean	$235.98
p95	$375.56
p99	$3,302.64
max	$431,970.83
Top 5% share of capital	94.0%

Inter-trade gap, same (market, outcome)

Metric	Value
Median (s)	0.0
Mean (s)	158.8
P10 (s)	0.0
P90 (s)	10.0
% under 1s	0.0%
% under 10s	89.4%
% under 60s	94.9%

Phase 2 & 3 - Both-Sides Participation, Dominance Curve

Both-sides rate: 1.03% (23 of 2,223 markets)
Median paired cost: $1.2535
Mean paired cost: $1.3915
Paired cost % under $1.00: 13.0%
Paired cost % under $0.97: 0.0%
Median 2nd-side hedge lag: 23536s

Dominance buckets

Bucket	Markets	Dom WR	Mean Paired	Avg Mkt P/L
1.0–1.5x	2	0.0%	$1.6280	-
1.5–2.0x	1	100.0%	$1.0321	-
2.0–3.0x	0	-	-	-
3.0x+	20	95.0%	$1.3858	-

Phase 4 - Entry-Price Analysis

Band	BUY trades	Wins	WR	Capital	P/L	ROI
$0.00–$0.10	279	5	1.8%	$289	+$2,978	+1031.52%
$0.10–$0.20	27	5	18.5%	$937	-$542	-57.87%
$0.20–$0.30	8	2	25.0%	$1.7K	-$1,425	-86.12%
$0.30–$0.40	7	6	85.7%	$123	-$65	-52.70%
$0.40–$0.50	16	9	56.2%	$211	+$119	+56.34%
$0.50–$0.60	350	337	96.3%	$3.2K	+$1,158	+35.68%
$0.60–$0.70	73	66	90.4%	$8.9K	+$1,849	+20.71%
$0.70–$0.80	631	629	99.7%	$15.9K	+$970	+6.11%
$0.80–$0.90	95	89	93.7%	$17.9K	+$1,880	+10.53%
$0.90–$1.00	54,297	53,995	99.4%	$20.70M	+$49,553	+0.24%

Phase 5 - Category & Vertical Breakdown

Category	BUY trades	BUY $	Resolved	WR	P/L	ROI
Crypto	70,092	$7.29M	45,199	98.6%	+$29,845	+0.43%
Soccer	5,116	$4.95M	5,116	100.0%	+$5,157	+0.11%
Other	2,014	$2.89M	2,010	99.3%	+$8,599	+0.30%
Tennis	1,325	$2.01M	1,325	100.0%	+$6,470	+0.32%
MLB	515	$1.61M	499	100.0%	+$1,614	+0.10%
NBA	1,034	$1.42M	1,034	100.0%	+$1,431	+0.10%
NHL	221	$495.3K	138	100.0%	+$2,774	+0.60%
NFL	165	$307.4K	165	100.0%	+$308	+0.10%
CBB	121	$176.5K	121	100.0%	+$178	+0.10%
UFC/MMA	178	$106.2K	176	100.0%	+$101	+0.10%

Phase 6 - Timing & Execution

Net P/L by hour (UTC)

Hour	P/L	WR
00:00	+$1,880	98.7%
01:00	+$2,740	99.6%
02:00	+$5,004	99.7%
03:00	+$2,379	99.9%
04:00	+$2,832	98.8%
05:00	+$953	98.6%
06:00	+$2,688	99.9%
07:00	+$4,868	100.0%
08:00	+$2,624	72.4%
09:00	-$3,222	99.3%
10:00	+$843	99.8%
11:00	+$1,390	99.6%
12:00	+$1,011	100.0%
13:00	-$1,584	99.9%
14:00	+$1,856	100.0%
15:00	+$1,973	99.6%
16:00	+$1,982	98.8%
17:00	+$4,277	99.9%
18:00	+$2,970	100.0%
19:00	+$1,410	89.7%
20:00	+$3,871	99.9%
21:00	+$7,634	100.0%
22:00	+$5,099	100.0%
23:00	+$996	100.0%

Phase 8 - Rolling Window Consistency

Rolling 7-day windows green: 31 of 31 (100.0%)
Rolling 7-day P/L range: +$2,362 → +$17,104
Rolling 15-day windows green: 31 of 31 (100.0%)
Rolling 15-day P/L range: +$2,362 → +$29,462

Weekly P/L

Week	Span	Trades	WR	P/L	Cumulative
W14	2026-04-01 → 2026-04-05	25,662	100.0%	+$12,839	+$12,839
W15	2026-04-06 → 2026-04-12	10,730	95.0%	+$8,950	+$21,789
W16	2026-04-13 → 2026-04-19	10,020	99.6%	+$15,053	+$36,842
W17	2026-04-20 → 2026-04-26	6,255	99.5%	+$3,090	+$39,932
W18	2026-04-27 → 2026-05-01	3,116	99.4%	+$16,543	+$56,475

Phase 9 - P/L Decomposition

Metric	Value
BUY USDC out	-$20,870,077
SELL USDC in	+$388,744
Theoretical spread P/L	-$10,989
Hedge-tax outflow	$12.0K
Net realized P/L	+$59,615
Net ROI on BUY notional	+0.29%

Phase 10 - Top Markets by Volume

Market	Trades	Volume	Resolved	P/L
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24?	76	$599.3K	75	+$1,166
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	27	$476.2K	27	+$477
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev	52	$457.3K	52	+$1,044
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	546	$353.6K	546	+$354
Athletics vs. New York Yankees	26	$349.7K	26	+$350
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels	41	$349.6K	41	+$350
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto	92	$338.7K	92	+$339
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	252	$318.9K	252	+$319
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?	37	$310.1K	37	+$310
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5	29	$297.5K	29	+$298

Top 10 winners by P/L

Market	Volume	Net P/L
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste	$123.4K	+$2,985
HYPE Up or Down - April 18, 2AM ET	$24	+$2,374
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7PM ET	$4.9K	+$2,151
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	$7.0K	+$2,086
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	$56.0K	+$1,628
Will Solana reach $100 in April?	$15.1K	+$1,393
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24?	$599.3K	+$1,166
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev	$457.3K	+$1,044
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli	$192.3K	+$895
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3AM ET	$6.3K	+$810

Top 10 losers by P/L

Market	Volume	Net P/L
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	$3.9K	-$3,942
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	$23.6K	-$3,481
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	$19.3K	-$3,141
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	$2.9K	-$2,898
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	$2.6K	-$2,585
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12AM ET	$27.1K	-$2,488
Will Solana reach $90 on April 16?	$694	-$694
Will Solana reach $85 on April 7?	$1.5K	-$654
Bitcoin above 73,800 on April 19, 8PM ET?	$512	-$512
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 29?	$1.2K	-$206

Report generated 2026-05-05 03:55 UTC.

// 004 / Filter strategy

Filter strategy

Which standard filters move the needle on this trader, and which destroy the edge.

Each filter is applied to the resolved-BUY set. Cash-flow P/L is allocated per-trade using pnl = frac × (sell_usdc + remaining_payout) − usdc. ROI is measured against BUY notional within the filter. Baseline P/L: +$59,615 on $20.74M deployed.

Filter results table

Filter	Trades	WR	Capital	P/L	ROI	Δ vs baseline
Unfiltered baseline	55,783	98.9%	$20.74M	+$56,475	+0.27%	-
Price band 0.30–0.70	456	93.6%	$12.9K	+$3,213	+24.89%	-$53.3K
High-conviction (dom≥2×)	373	98.7%	$219.0K	+$1,646	+0.75%	-$54.8K
Top category (NHL)	138	100.0%	$463.6K	+$2,774	+0.60%	-$53.7K
Exclude worst hours	48,486	99.8%	$17.77M	+$49,607	+0.28%	-$6.9K
Combined stack	0	0.0%	$0	+$0	0.00%	-$56.5K

Filter-by-filter commentary

No filter in the standard framework adds P/L to this trader. The unfiltered baseline is already the optimum - additional gating subtracts good fills along with bad ones. That is itself a finding: the strategy is at filter terminal velocity.

The most destructive standard filter is Combined stack: it costs $56.5K versus baseline. This usually means the filter is selecting against the actual mechanism the trader is using.

// 005 / Replication notes

Replication notes

Where the edge is portable, and where it isn't.

Archetype: One-sided book, crypto-focused. Reference book: $20.74M BUY notional → +$59,615 net P/L → +0.29% ROI in 31 active days.

Where the edge appears reproducible

Category specialization. Capital is concentrated in Crypto; reproduce by gating on the same vertical and matching the price-band distribution in the quantitative section.
Sizing discipline. Median ticket $0.74 with P95 at $375.56 - the modal clip size is small and the tail is bounded. Fixed-clip sizing inside this envelope matches the wallet's risk profile and avoids tail-blowup.

Where the edge probably is not reproducible

Off-platform signal. Any directional view (sports info, model-driven conviction, cross-venue arbitrage) cannot be reconstructed from on-chain trade data alone. Linear approximations to the wallet's sizing curve typically recover only a fraction of the realized return.
Latency edge. If the wallet's intra-market gap distribution is sub-second for a meaningful share of fills, the strategy is competing on infrastructure as well as logic. Replicating that requires co-located RPC and a non-trivial engineering build.

The reproducible parts give you a reasonable bot. The non-reproducible parts tell you what to keep working on. Use the quantitative section as the spec - every threshold and distribution there is what you would seed into a backtest, not the high-level summary above.

// 001 / Analysis