This wallet ran for 21 active days (21 calendar days in window) and logged 586,261 trades - 586,261 BUY tickets and 0 SELL tickets - across 7,463 distinct markets and 7,463 events. Gross turnover for the window: $2.21M, averaging 27,917 trades/day.
On the resolved-BUY book, the wallet has 576,302 closed positions with a 48.6% win rate (280,199 wins / 296,103 losses), netting +$19,190 on $2.18M deployed - a realized return of +0.87%.
Sizing & execution profile
The median fill is $2.54, the mean is $3.77, P95 is $11.20, P99 is $15.99 and the largest single fill in the window was $204.66. The top 5% of trades carry 22.6% of total capital - a sizing curve where most fills are small probes and a small handful of larger fills express conviction.
Intra-market consecutive fill gap is 2s median with 71.9% of pairs firing in under ten seconds - a latency signature consistent with automated execution.
Where the edge lives
With 99.2% of markets seeing both YES and NO bought, the book has the surface profile of a market maker. Median paired cost is $0.9902; 54.5% of paired markets close under $1.00. The conviction curve and dominance buckets in the quantitative section break down which side of the spread carries the realized P/L.
Of 21 rolling 15-day windows, 21 close positive (100.0% green-window rate). This is the consistency profile that determines how reproducible the strategy is over time.
