Definition

What is Adverse selection?

Adverse selection is the tendency for a passive quote to be filled precisely when it is wrong. The counterparty crossing into your order is more likely to be better informed or faster, so the fills a market maker actually receives are a biased sample of the ones it offered.

Also called: toxic flow

Why it matters

This is why a market maker's realised profit is usually far below the quoted spread multiplied by volume. Detecting and withdrawing ahead of informed flow — rather than quoting wider all the time — is most of the skill in the strategy.

The common mistake

Reacting by widening quotes permanently. That gives up the revenue on benign flow without solving the problem; the skill is detecting informed flow and withdrawing, not pricing everyone as if they were informed.

Related terms

More

Browse the full glossary (32 terms), the strategy database, or the build guides.

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