Polymarket crypto Up/Down cycles resolve against a 60-second time-weighted average of the reference price feed, not against the live spot tick. A bot reading the last trade price will disagree with settlement near a close, because spot and the 60-second average are different numbers.
This is the single most consequential mechanical detail for anyone automating short-cycle crypto markets, and it is the one most often missed. A strategy that decides "up or down" from the ticker is answering a different question than the one the market resolves.
It also has a direct backtesting consequence: to resolve a historical cycle the way the exchange did, you need the reconstructed 60-second TWAP series, not a spot tape. PR&R publishes that rebuilt series for the full archive for exactly this reason.
This is a PR&R research finding, verified against settled cycles.
Deciding up or down from the live ticker. The ticker is spot; settlement is the 60-second average. A strategy built on the first is answering a different question from the one the market pays out on, and the two disagree most often near a close.
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