Signal-Driven#076

Maritime AIS Shipping Signal

Watch live ship-location data (AIS, the GPS-style transponder every large vessel broadcasts) to spot tankers going dark, ports jamming up, or navy movements at chokepoints like Hormuz and Suez, then bet on the related commodity, sanctions, or conflict markets. The edge: the physical movement of ships happens days before officials confirm it or news narratives form, so you trade the fact before the story.

What you need to run it

AIS feed (MarineTraffic/Spire/Global Fishing Watch) with vessel-class tagging
Dark-ship and chokepoint-congestion detection model
Linkage of vessel events to sanctions/commodity/conflict markets
Capital to hold positions through multi-day physical-event windows

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where maritime ais shipping signal is the natural play:

Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed to tanker traffic before Oct 1, 2026?
Will OPEC+ crude exports exceed quota in any month of Q4 2026?
Will Russia's seaborne crude exports breach the price cap in Q1 2027?

Capabilities this demands

Feed ingestionModel / quantData ingestionDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

Requirements4

CapabilitiesFeed ingestion, Model / quant, Data ingestion, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related signal-driven strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.