A base rate is how often something happens historically, ignoring the current hype. This strategy finds markets where the crowd's price clearly ignores those long-run odds (for example, incumbents win reelection most of the time, no-hitters are rare) and bets the side that history favors. You won't win every trade, but across many markets where the crowd is far off the historical rate, the math works out. Discipline to ride out unlucky individual outcomes is essential.
Markets on Polymarket where base rate exploitation is the natural play:
