Quantitative#011

Momentum / Trend Following

Rather than fight a trend, you ride it: when a market's price has been moving steadily one direction and breaks out of its recent range, you enter in that direction and let it run, exiting when it reverses. The edge is that prediction-market prices often keep drifting the same way as news and money continue to flow in, rather than turning on a dime. A trailing stop locks in gains and gets you out fast when momentum flips.

What you need to run it

Price time-series storage with rolling-window indicators
Signal rules (e.g., N-minute breakout, volume confirmation)
Trailing stops to protect gains on fast reversals

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where momentum / trend following is the natural play:

Will Bitcoin close above $140k on December 31, 2026?
Will the GOP win the 2026 House majority?
Will Trump's approval be above 45% at the end of Q4 2026?

Capabilities this demands

Custom code / APIData ingestionRisk management

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

Requirements3

CapabilitiesCustom code / API, Data ingestion, Risk management

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.