Geopolitics & World · Quantitative#276

Conflict-Event Dataset Escalation Index

Academic conflict datasets code political violence event by event, with location, actor and fatality counts, updated weekly. That gives you a quantitative escalation curve instead of a vibe drawn from headlines — and headline volume and actual escalation diverge constantly, because coverage follows attention rather than events. You build the index and trade escalation and de-escalation markets against the measured trend.

What you need to run it

Ingestion of a coded conflict-event dataset with weekly refresh
Escalation index combining event frequency, geographic spread and severity
Calibration against past episodes so index levels map to outcome probabilities

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where conflict-event dataset escalation index is the natural play:

Will the conflict escalate before the end of the quarter?
Will fatalities exceed the stated threshold this year?
Will fighting spread to a neighbouring country in 2027?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketGeopolitics & World

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related geopolitics & world strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.