Markets on whether a head of state remains in office by a date are, at their floor, actuarial: age and known health conditions give a baseline hazard rate that can be computed from life tables. On top of that sits political risk. Long-dated versions of these markets frequently trade far away from the actuarial floor in both directions. You anchor on the mortality baseline, layer the political hazard, and trade the difference.
Markets on Polymarket where leader-health & succession hazard model is the natural play:
