Political scientists have built and validated models of coup and civil-conflict risk from a consistent set of inputs: recent coup history, GDP shocks, army pay arrears, leader tenure and neighborhood contagion. Those inputs are publicly available, and the resulting base rates are far more informative than headline-driven intuition. You maintain the index across countries and trade the instability markets that are priced on news cycles rather than structural risk.
Markets on Polymarket where instability & coup-risk index is the natural play:
