Aggregate critic scores start with a small number of festival or embargo-lift reviews and converge as the full set lands, and the early sample is a biased but informative predictor of the final number. Markets asking whether a film clears a score threshold reprice violently on the first few reviews. You model the convergence from partial samples, including which outlets historically score above or below the eventual average, and fade the overreaction.
Markets on Polymarket where critic-score threshold model is the natural play:
