Major awards arrive in a sequence, and the earlier ones are strong predictors of the later ones because the voting bodies overlap — the guild awards in particular have historically matched the eventual Oscar winner at a high rate in several categories. You build conditional probabilities from decades of precursor-to-final outcomes and reprice the outright markets after each precursor result, category by category, since the predictive strength differs sharply between them.
Markets on Polymarket where precursor-award signal chain is the natural play:
