Arbitrage#003

Cross-Platform Arbitrage

The same real-world event is often traded on several venues at once (Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, sportsbooks). When one venue implies a meaningfully different probability than another, you buy the cheap side on one platform and sell the equivalent on the other, locking in the gap. The edge comes from price differences across markets that should agree; you must convert each venue's odds to a true probability after fees and the bookmaker's built-in margin (the 'vig').

What you need to run it

  • Accounts and funded balances on at least two venues
  • Odds-conversion tooling that accounts for fees and vig
  • Awareness of regional/legal restrictions on each platform

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where cross-platform arbitrage is the natural play:

  • Will the Chiefs beat the Bills this Sunday?
  • Will Ethereum close above $4,000 on December 31, 2026?
  • Will the GOP win the 2026 House majority?

Capabilities this demands

Multi-venueCustom code / APISignificant capital

At a glance

CategoryArbitrage
Requirements3
CapabilitiesMulti-venue, Custom code / API, Significant capital
VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related arbitrage strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.
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