Stocks & Companies · Quantitative#197

Earnings Whisper vs Consensus Beat Model

Published analyst consensus is a lagging, systematically conservative number — companies beat it roughly three quarters of the time — while the 'whisper' number circulating among buy-side desks is the figure the stock actually reacts to. Markets asking whether a company beats earnings are usually priced off the published consensus. You model the historical beat rate by company and sector, adjust for guidance history and revision momentum, and take the side the base rate supports.

What you need to run it

Estimate-revision history and per-company beat/miss track record
Whisper-number sourcing plus sector-level surprise distributions
Precise reading of whether the market resolves on EPS, revenue or both

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where earnings whisper vs consensus beat model is the natural play:

Will Nvidia beat consensus EPS this quarter?
Will Tesla report more than 500,000 deliveries this quarter?
Will Apple's quarterly revenue exceed $100 billion?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketStocks & Companies

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.