When an acquisition is announced, the target trades below the offer price, and the size of that gap is the equity market's own estimate of the chance the deal closes. That estimate is made by specialists who read the merger agreement, the antitrust posture and the break-fee terms. You convert the spread into a completion probability and trade the Polymarket 'will the deal close' contract against it, adjusting for the expected time to closing.
Markets on Polymarket where m&a deal-spread completion probability is the natural play:
