Dated futures trade above or below spot by an amount called basis, and the shape of that curve across expiries is the professional market's own forecast of where price will sit at each future date. You convert that curve into an implied distribution and compare it against Polymarket's 'will BTC close above $X on date Y' ladder. Where the ladder disagrees with the curve by more than fees, you take the side the curve supports — you are importing a deeper, better-capitalized market's opinion.
Markets on Polymarket where futures basis & term-structure import for strike markets is the natural play:
