The price shown on a market page and the price that actually resolves it can come from different places — one a live exchange ticker, the other an averaged oracle feed with its own update cadence. When the two drift apart, traders anchored to the visible ticker misprice the market relative to the thing that will actually settle it. You track both series continuously and take the side the resolution source supports. The whole edge is knowing precisely which number the contract obeys.
Markets on Polymarket where spot-ticker vs oracle-settlement divergence fade is the natural play:
