Esports & Gaming · Quantitative#177

Live Objective & Gold-Lead Win Probability

MOBA matches expose a rich live game state — gold difference, tower count, dragon and baron control — and a model fitted on thousands of past games converts that state into a win probability far more reliably than eyeballing a stream. Live esports markets move on highlight moments, not on structural advantage. You consume the official match API and trade the gap, being careful that the API is ahead of the broadcast you are watching.

What you need to run it

Official live match-state API access for the titles you trade
Win-probability model trained on historical game states for the current patch
Awareness of broadcast delay so you are trading against slower, stream-based traders

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where live objective & gold-lead win probability is the natural play:

Will T1 win game 3 of this series?
Will Team Liquid win their current Dota 2 match?
Will this LoL game last longer than 32 minutes?

Capabilities this demands

Low latencyModel / quantCustom code / API

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketEsports & Gaming

Requirements3

CapabilitiesLow latency, Model / quant, Custom code / API

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related esports & gaming strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.