Esports & Gaming · Quantitative#176

Map-Pool & Veto Advantage Model

In games like CS2 the teams alternate banning maps, so the map that actually gets played is a predictable function of both teams' pools and the veto order. Teams have wildly different win rates by map — 70% on one, 40% on another — so knowing the likely map is most of the prediction. You simulate the veto sequence, weight by each map's historical head-to-head record, and trade series markets before the veto is public.

What you need to run it

Per-team, per-map win-rate database kept current across recent patches
Veto-sequence simulator that respects the tournament's specific ban format
Fast update once the actual veto is published, which collapses the distribution

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where map-pool & veto advantage model is the natural play:

Will Natus Vincere beat Vitality in their next CS2 series?
Will the underdog win at least one map in this Bo3?
Will MOUZ win the next CS2 Major?

Capabilities this demands

Model / quantData ingestionDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketEsports & Gaming

Requirements3

CapabilitiesModel / quant, Data ingestion, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related esports & gaming strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.