For weather markets (hurricane track, temperature, snowfall), you use professional forecast models, including the ensemble runs from NWS and ECMWF that show a spread of likely outcomes, to estimate probabilities more precisely than casual bettors eyeballing the forecast. You map each forecast to the exact area and threshold the market resolves on, and update your position after every new model run. The edge is turning raw meteorological data into sharper odds.
Markets on Polymarket where weather-event markets is the natural play:
