When analysts revise their estimates, they do it in herds and they do it slowly — an upward revision today makes another upward revision next week more likely, and that drift is one of the most durable documented effects in equity research. Markets on beats, guidance and price thresholds are priced on the current consensus, which by construction lags the revision trend. You trade the direction the revisions are moving, not the level they have reached.
Markets on Polymarket where analyst revision-momentum factor is the natural play:
