Mentions & Social · Quantitative#226

Appearance-Calendar Base Rate

A market asking whether someone says something 'this week' depends first on how many opportunities they will have — rallies, interviews, hearings, posts — and only second on their vocabulary. The appearance calendar is largely public and highly predictable. You forecast the number of speaking opportunities in the window, combine it with a per-appearance mention rate, and price the market as a simple exposure calculation.

What you need to run it

Maintained appearance calendar per figure, including recurring weekly commitments
Per-appearance mention rate by venue type from the historical corpus
Handling of cancellations and unscheduled appearances, which both move the count

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where appearance-calendar base rate is the natural play:

Will the president mention Ukraine this week?
Will Elon Musk post about Tesla stock in the next 7 days?
Will the governor mention immigration in any speech this month?

Capabilities this demands

PatienceData ingestionModel / quant

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketMentions & Social

Requirements3

CapabilitiesPatience, Data ingestion, Model / quant

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related mentions & social strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.