Mentions & Social · Quantitative#227

Post-Volume Threshold Modeling

Markets asking how many times an account will post in a period are a counting process with strong daily and weekly rhythms plus occasional bursts. A model fitted on that account's history — typically a bursty Poisson process — prices the threshold far better than intuition, especially mid-window when part of the count is already banked. You track the running count live and reprice continuously as time runs out.

What you need to run it

Complete posting history per account with time-of-day and day-of-week structure
Burst-aware counting model that handles clustered activity realistically
Live count tracking against the market's exact window boundaries and time zone

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where post-volume threshold modeling is the natural play:

Will Elon Musk post more than 100 times this week?
Will the account post between 50 and 74 times today?
Will the president post more than 20 times on Sunday?

Capabilities this demands

Custom code / APIModel / quantPatience

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketMentions & Social

Requirements3

CapabilitiesCustom code / API, Model / quant, Patience

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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