Personal-life markets — engagements, splits, births, public appearances — run on tabloid reporting of wildly varying reliability, from outlets with strong confirmation records to ones that publish speculation as fact. You maintain accuracy scores per outlet from previously resolved stories and trade only when a tier-one source reports, fading the spikes driven by aggregators. It is source calibration applied to the least rigorous corner of the market.
Markets on Polymarket where celebrity-event rumor tiering is the natural play:
