Hardware-dependent milestones — data-center buildouts, device launches, production targets — are gated by semiconductor supply, and that supply is visible in advance through foundry utilization disclosures, packaging capacity reports, export-control changes and lead-time surveys. When capacity is constrained, ambitious timelines slip. You track the supply chain and fade the markets pricing a launch date the physical inputs cannot support.
Markets on Polymarket where chip-supply & fab-capacity signal is the natural play:
