Tech & AI · Quantitative#237

Model-Release Cadence Hazard Model

Frontier AI labs ship on a rhythm you can measure: the gaps between their past releases, the lead time between a teaser and a launch, and the conference dates they like to land on. Markets asking whether a lab ships a model before a date are usually priced on the loudest recent rumor. You fit a hazard model to each lab's release history, layer in observable precursors, and price the date markets from the pattern instead.

What you need to run it

Release-history database per lab with dates, gaps and pre-announcement lead times
Precursor monitoring: model cards, API string changes, staged documentation, job postings
Conference and event calendar, since launches cluster around specific dates

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where model-release cadence hazard model is the natural play:

Will OpenAI release a new flagship model before December 2026?
Will Google ship a new Gemini version this quarter?
Will Anthropic release a new Claude model before June 2027?

Capabilities this demands

PatienceData ingestionModel / quant

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketTech & AI

Requirements3

CapabilitiesPatience, Data ingestion, Model / quant

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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