Science & Health · Quantitative#244

Clinical-Trial Readout Probability

The chance a trial succeeds is well characterized by phase, therapeutic area and endpoint type — mid-stage oncology trials and late-stage cardiovascular trials have very different track records. Registry entries also disclose enrollment progress and expected completion, which tells you when the readout is coming. You combine the phase-specific base rate with the specific trial's design and trade the readout markets against a crowd trading the story of the disease.

What you need to run it

Trial registry ingestion with enrollment status and primary completion dates
Phase- and indication-specific historical success rates
Endpoint analysis, since a change in the primary endpoint mid-trial is a meaningful signal

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where clinical-trial readout probability is the natural play:

Will the phase 3 trial meet its primary endpoint?
Will results be published before the end of 2027?
Will the company report positive topline data this quarter?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketScience & Health

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related science & health strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.