Drug approvals run on a published clock: the FDA sets a target decision date for each application, and historical approval rates by review type, advisory-committee outcome and indication give a strong prior for what happens on that date. You maintain the calendar, weight each candidate by its trial results and committee vote, and trade the approval markets — including the meaningful probability of a delay rather than a decision, which markets often ignore entirely.
Markets on Polymarket where pdufa-date approval calendar is the natural play:
