Science & Health · Quantitative#245

Epidemic Case-Curve Nowcast

Outbreak markets resolve on official counts that are published with a reporting lag and revised afterward, so the number that resolves the market is not the number visible today. Wastewater surveillance and test-positivity data lead confirmed cases by one to two weeks. You nowcast the reported figure by combining the leading indicators with the known reporting-delay distribution, and trade thresholds the raw dashboard understates.

What you need to run it

Wastewater, test-positivity and hospitalization feeds alongside official case counts
Reporting-delay and revision model for the specific agency that resolves the market
Epidemic curve model translating current transmission into future reported counts

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where epidemic case-curve nowcast is the natural play:

Will reported cases exceed 100,000 in a single week this winter?
Will the WHO declare a public health emergency in 2027?
Will hospitalizations peak before February 2027?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantPatience

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketScience & Health

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Patience

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related science & health strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.