Mentions & Social · Arbitrage#277

Count-Bucket Ladder Arbitrage

Mention-count markets are listed as mutually exclusive buckets — 0 to 24 times, 25 to 49, 50 to 74, 75 or more — and exactly one of them must happen, so their prices must sum to one. In practice the exciting high bucket gets bid up while the boring middle ones go stale, and the set sums to well over one. You sell the whole overpriced set, or the specific rich bucket against the cheap ones, and collect the excess.

What you need to run it

  • Bucket-set capture per figure and window with a running sum of implied probabilities
  • Multi-leg execution sized to the thinnest bucket in the set
  • Confirmation that the buckets are genuinely exhaustive and non-overlapping

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where count-bucket ladder arbitrage is the natural play:

  • Will Elon Musk post 25-49 times today?
  • Will Elon Musk post 50-74 times today?
  • Will Elon Musk post 75+ times today?

Capabilities this demands

Custom code / APISignificant capitalManual research

At a glance

CategoryArbitrage
MarketMentions & Social
Requirements3
CapabilitiesCustom code / API, Significant capital, Manual research
VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related mentions & social strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.
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