Arbitrage#060

Cross-Market Mutually-Exclusive Sum-Over-One Fade

Sometimes Polymarket lists several related markets that together cover all possibilities and can't both happen (e.g. separate 'BTC tops $X' tiers), but they aren't formally grouped, so nothing forces their prices to add to 100%. When their YES prices total more than $1, you bet against the whole overpriced set by buying NO on each tier. The edge is the missing 100% constraint across markets that the platform never linked together.

What you need to run it

Semantic grouping of related-but-ungrouped markets
Mutual-exclusivity / exhaustiveness validator
Multi-leg NO execution with sum-cost monitoring
Resolution-overlap audit to rule out double-pay risk

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where cross-market mutually-exclusive sum-over-one fade is the natural play:

Will Bitcoin close above $200k at any point in 2026?
Will Bitcoin close above $250k at any point in 2026?
Will Bitcoin close above $300k at any point in 2026?

Capabilities this demands

Manual researchModel / quantData ingestionSignificant capital

At a glance

CategoryArbitrage

Requirements4

CapabilitiesManual research, Model / quant, Data ingestion, Significant capital

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related arbitrage strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.