In states that publish the party registration and demographics of everyone who has already voted, you can compute how much of each coalition's vote is already banked days before polls close. Comparing that composition against the same point in prior cycles gives a real, quantitative read on relative enthusiasm. Markets tend to trade on anecdote and turnout narratives while this hard data sits in a public file updated nightly.
Markets on Polymarket where early & mail-ballot composition model is the natural play:
