On election night the raw vote total is deeply misleading, because precincts report in a non-random order — urban centers and mail batches often come late, producing a lead that predictably evaporates. A model that knows each precinct's historical partisan lean and expected turnout can convert partial returns into a projected final margin while the market is still reacting to the running total. This is the single largest recurring mispricing in political markets.
Markets on Polymarket where precinct-reporting nowcast is the natural play:
