The fed funds futures market prices the expected policy rate at every upcoming meeting, and billions of dollars of hedging keep it honest. Converting those contracts into a per-meeting cut or hike probability is arithmetic, not forecasting. Whenever Polymarket's rate-decision market disagrees with the futures-implied number by more than fees, you take the futures side — you are importing a far deeper market's consensus rather than forming a view on the economy.
Markets on Polymarket where fed-funds futures implied-path import is the natural play:
