Economics & Macro · Quantitative#191

Jobless-Claims Seasonal-Factor Edge

Weekly unemployment claims are published seasonally adjusted, and the adjustment factors are known in advance and published by the agency. Around holidays, auto-plant retooling weeks and the start of school terms, the raw-to-adjusted conversion swings enough to move the printed number several thousand in either direction. You forecast the raw number from state-level filings, apply the published factor exactly, and trade the weekly threshold markets on the arithmetic.

What you need to run it

State-level claims data plus the published seasonal-adjustment factor schedule
Calendar of the known distortion weeks for each year
Weekly execution cadence with small, repeatable position sizes

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where jobless-claims seasonal-factor edge is the natural play:

Will initial jobless claims come in above 250,000 this week?
Will continuing claims exceed 2 million in the next report?
Will claims fall below 200,000 before year end?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionPatienceModel / quant

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketEconomics & Macro

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Patience, Model / quant

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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