Economics & Macro · Signal-Driven#189

FOMC Statement-Diff & Dot-Plot Trading

The Fed's policy statement changes only a few words between meetings, and those words are chosen deliberately — dropping 'patient' or adding 'some further' is the actual message. You run an automated diff against the previous statement the instant it posts, score the changes on a hawkish-to-dovish scale calibrated on past reactions, and trade the follow-on markets about future meetings before the press conference even begins.

What you need to run it

Statement scrape at release with an automated word-level diff against the prior version
Scoring model calibrated on historical statement changes and subsequent market moves
Separate handling for the quarterly projections, where the dot plot dominates the text

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where fomc statement-diff & dot-plot trading is the natural play:

Will the Fed cut rates at the following meeting?
Will the Fed's next move be a hike?
Will the median 2027 dot show three or more cuts?

Capabilities this demands

Low latencyCustom code / APIDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

MarketEconomics & Macro

Requirements3

CapabilitiesLow latency, Custom code / API, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data resources directory.