Hurricane markets ask about landfall location, intensity at landfall, and named-storm counts, and the official forecast cone is a 2-in-3 confidence band, not a guarantee — a third of storms end up outside it. You build your own track distribution from ensemble spaghetti models and historical forecast-error statistics at each lead time, which lets you price the tails the cone visually understates. Intensity is far less predictable than track, and the markets often fail to reflect that asymmetry.
Markets on Polymarket where hurricane cone & landfall probability model is the natural play:
