Daily-high temperature markets resolve on a specific official station, and by early afternoon that station has already reported most of what will decide the outcome. If the observed temperature is 93°F at 2pm with three hours of heating left, the question is nearly settled while the market is still pricing the morning forecast. You poll the resolving station's observations directly and trade the residual uncertainty rather than the forecast.
Markets on Polymarket where station-level observation nowcast is the natural play:
