Quantitative#144

Implied-Volatility Surface Import from Crypto Options

Use crypto options pricing from venues like Deribit to estimate the chance a coin finishes above or below a given price by a Polymarket market's expiry, then trade when Polymarket's implied probability disagrees with the options-implied one. IV surface just means the market's option prices across strikes and dates; the edge is a deep, always-priced derivatives market feeding a simple yes/no contract.

What you need to run it

Live crypto options chain / IV surface (Deribit or equivalent)
Digital-option pricer converting surface to range probabilities
Expiry and strike alignment logic to the Polymarket contract
Funding/basis adjustment for spot vs perp reference price

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where implied-volatility surface import from crypto options is the natural play:

Will Bitcoin close above $200k on Dec 31, 2027?
Will Ethereum be above $6,000 by the end of Q1 2027?
Will Solana finish below $200 at the end of the next quarter?

Capabilities this demands

Model / quantFeed ingestionMulti-venueSignificant capital

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

Requirements4

CapabilitiesModel / quant, Feed ingestion, Multi-venue, Significant capital

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.