Size each bet using the Kelly criterion, a formula that turns your estimated edge and the market's odds into the wager fraction that grows your bankroll fastest over the long run (in practice you use a fraction of full Kelly to soften swings). The point isn't picking winners but bet sizing: bigger when your edge is large, smaller when it's thin, so you compound efficiently without risking ruin.
Markets on Polymarket where kelly-optimal sizing is the natural play:
