Structural#014

Long-Tail Decay Harvesting

Some markets sit at near-certain prices, like Yes shares trading under 1 cent or No shares above 99 cents, where the outcome is essentially decided but not yet final. You buy the near-certain side and hold to resolution to collect the tiny remaining premium, then repeat across many such markets so the small wins add up. The risk is that one of these 'sure things' surprises you, so you filter out any with a real catalyst that could flip them.

What you need to run it

  • Large number of such markets running in parallel
  • Capital efficiency model (capital tied up vs. annualized yield)
  • Strict filter to exclude markets with tail-risk catalysts

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where long-tail decay harvesting is the natural play:

  • Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? (buy No)
  • Will the US confirm alien contact in 2026? (buy No)
  • Will Ethereum fall below $100 by December 31, 2026? (buy No)

Capabilities this demands

Significant capitalPatienceCustom code / API

At a glance

CategoryStructural
Requirements3
CapabilitiesSignificant capital, Patience, Custom code / API
VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related structural strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.
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