Structural#013

Resolution-Criteria Hunting

Every market has fine-print rules saying exactly what makes it resolve Yes or No, and what source decides. This strategy reads that fine print closely and trades when the literal wording almost forces an outcome the crowd is mispricing because they're going on gut feel instead of the rules. The edge is interpreting the resolution criteria more precisely than everyone else. ('UMA' is the decentralized oracle that often settles these disputes, so knowing how it has ruled before helps.)

What you need to run it

  • Careful read of every market's resolution source and rules
  • Log of past UMA/oracle rulings to predict edge-case behavior
  • Patience to wait for ambiguous markets to resolve

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where resolution-criteria hunting is the natural play:

  • Will the US officially enter a recession in 2026 (per NBER)?
  • Will Trump 'end' the Ukraine war by December 31, 2026?
  • Will OpenAI 'release AGI' by the end of 2027?

Capabilities this demands

Manual researchDomain knowledgePatience

At a glance

CategoryStructural
Requirements3
CapabilitiesManual research, Domain knowledge, Patience
VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related structural strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.
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