Specialist#042

Macro / Fed Decision Trading

Trade Fed-decision, CPI, and jobs-report markets by comparing Polymarket's prices to the probabilities already baked into financial markets, like Fed funds futures (which imply the odds of a rate cut) and CPI swaps. When Polymarket drifts away from those professional benchmarks, you trade the gap, using Polymarket simply as the cheaper venue to express the same view.

What you need to run it

CME FedWatch / fed-funds futures data feed
Economic-release calendar with exact timestamps
Script converting futures prices to binary probabilities

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where macro / fed decision trading is the natural play:

Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?
Will the upcoming CPI print exceed 3.2% year-over-year?
Will the next monthly jobs report (NFP) beat 150k?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionDomain knowledgeModel / quant

At a glance

CategorySpecialist

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Domain knowledge, Model / quant

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related specialist strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.