Trade pick-the-winner markets for Nobel Prizes, papal conclaves, and big appointments (Fed chair, Supreme Court, party leadership) using structured priors: citation rankings and prediction histories for Nobels, factional and geographic rotation patterns for conclaves, and shortlist leaks. The edge is that these patterns (Nobel field-rotation cycles, conclave kingmaker dynamics) let you price a crowded field of long-shot names that get little attention and are therefore mispriced.
Markets on Polymarket where nobel/papal/appointment conclave model is the natural play:
