Arbitrage#058

Polymarket-vs-Sportsbook Options-Style Synthetic RV

A Polymarket yes/no contract pays $1 if an event happens. You can rebuild that same payout synthetically using other instruments, like a sportsbook parlay or a crypto options spread that pays off in the same scenario. When the cost of building the payout that way differs from Polymarket's price for the same outcome, you buy the cheap version and sell the expensive one. The edge is pricing inconsistencies between fixed yes/no markets and continuous derivative markets.

What you need to run it

  • Options/sportsbook pricing feed for replicable underlyings
  • Replication engine mapping binaries to spreads/digitals
  • Capital across derivative venue + Polymarket
  • Greeks/margin and resolution-mismatch risk model

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where polymarket-vs-sportsbook options-style synthetic rv is the natural play:

  • Will Bitcoin close above $100k on Dec 31, 2026?
  • Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl LXII?
  • Will Ethereum close above $6k on Dec 31, 2026?

Capabilities this demands

Multi-venueModel / quantSignificant capitalDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategoryArbitrage
Requirements4
CapabilitiesMulti-venue, Model / quant, Significant capital, Domain knowledge
VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related arbitrage strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (147 strategies) or the data resources directory.
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