When one event is offered at many thresholds (e.g. BTC above 90k, 100k, 110k by the same date), the implied probabilities should fall in a smooth, consistent order. You fit a proper probability distribution to the whole ladder and trade any rung that's priced inconsistently with the others — for instance where a higher threshold is somehow priced more likely than a lower one. The edge is that the crowd prices each rung in isolation without enforcing a coherent overall curve.
Markets on Polymarket where probability term-structure curve trading is the natural play:
