An hourly up/down market prices the chance the coin ends higher, which is really a statement about how much it can move in the time remaining. Compare the volatility the market is implying against what the coin has actually realised over the same hour-of-day across recent weeks, and the gap is tradeable. Crypto has strong intraday volatility patterns — the US open and the Asia session are not the same market — and cycle pricing rarely reflects them.
Markets on Polymarket where realized-vs-implied volatility cone for cycles is the natural play:
