Recession markets look like macro bets but are mostly definition bets: some resolve on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, others on the NBER committee's declaration, which arrives with a lag of six months to a year and weighs employment and income more heavily than GDP. Those two definitions can and have disagreed. You read which rule governs each market and trade the gap between markets that describe the same recession under different rules.
Markets on Polymarket where recession-definition rulebook trade is the natural play:
