Markets about a technology reaching a user, revenue or deployment milestone are questions about where a growth curve is on its trajectory. Technology adoption follows a well-studied S-shape — slow, then steep, then flattening — and fitting the curve to reported figures gives a far better date estimate than extrapolating the last quarter's growth rate. The crowd tends to extrapolate the steep middle forever, which overprices near-term milestones and underprices later ones.
Markets on Polymarket where s-curve adoption model for milestone markets is the natural play:
